CORPUS CHRISTI, Texas — Rafael is now a hurricane in the Caribbean Sea. Hurricane Warnings are up for the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba, where Rafael is forecast to make landfall as either a strong category one or category two hurricane, Wednesday.
Rafael will then re-emerge into the SE Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night/Thursday, where it's expected to retain hurricane status. Rafael will drift to the northwest in the Gulf of Mexico and weaken.
The farther north Rafael gets into the gulf, the more hostile the environment will be for it to flourish. You can see the weakening in the NHC forecast cone, barely maintaining tropical storm status by Sunday.
In the Coastal Bend, we are expecting a cold front to move through on Saturday morning. That front should help deflect Rafael to the east/north. The 6pm forecast cone also shows this northward deflection because of the influence of this cold front.
The front will also bring in lots of wind shear to the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. So, even if something did try to move toward Texas, it would not be a problem in terms of anything hazardous happening.
Coastal Bend beaches will however, start to receive longer period swells and larger waves over the weekend because of Rafael. Remember, it'll be a hurricane on Thursday and Friday in the SE Gulf of Mexico, so it'll still churn up the waters.
Holt out
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The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1 to November 30, with the peak of the climatological peak of the season happening on September 10.
Here are the names for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Names are given to tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes).
On May 23, NOAA released their forecast for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. They're predicting an above-average year, with 17-25 named storms. This is the highest pre-season forecast they've ever issued.
The high number of storms forecast is due to near-record sea surface temperatures and the return of La Nina, both of which favor tropical cyclone development. We talk more about those in our Hurricane Special, which you can watch here!
Remember to not "anchor" to the first forecast you see - forecasts change. Also, rely on a credible source for your tropical information and forecasts.
