MOLINE, Ill. — We left our prolonged La Niña pattern back in February this year and now we are watching the switch to the El Niño pattern. The newest update from the Climate Prediction Center has put us in an official El Niño watch, meaning we are expecting the pattern to take place in the coming weeks.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate pattern and remains in different phases for about a year. La Niña is the cool phase and El Niño is the warm phase. Usually we see the biggest influence of each phase during our winter seasons, but we can see some during the summer.
Depending on the strength of El Niño, the entire United States usually sees cooler than normal temperatures during the summer. Wetter than normal conditions are seen in the western half of the country and drier than normal in the East.
During the winter months, when we see the most impacts of El Niño, our region usually sees warmer temperatures and drier conditions.
The influence of ENSO is also seen more heavily on hurricane season. During the El Niño phase, it brings better news to the Atlantic basin. Due to higher vertical wind shear, we usually see less hurricane activity in the Atlantic. Hurricanes need weaker wind shear to continue to intensify.
This brings us to Colorado State University issuing the first hurricane forecast for 2023. No surprise, they are predicting a below normal hurricane season and it is likely due to the fact the El Niño pattern is expected to take over the summer!
