MOLINE, Ill. — Hurricane season is less than one month away for us here in the U.S., and it appears a La Niña pattern could once again create a very busy forecast picture for both the Atlantic and Pacific ocean basins.
In a La Niña pattern, wind shear (strong winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere) is typically weaker in the tropical Atlantic. That paired with more instability often leads to an above-average hurricane season. Strong areas of wind shear typically tear storms apart and prevent them from forming into something more substantial/stronger. The current La Niña pattern has been around since summer 2020, and it's no surprise that the past two hurricane seasons have shown above-average activity.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will release its 2022 Hurricane Season Forecast at the end of this month, but two other agencies have already added their two cents.
Colorado State University, which has been providing tropical forecasting since the late 1980s, predicts another busy season ahead with 19 named storms compared to an average season of 14. The number of hurricanes and major hurricanes is also expected to be slightly elevated this season.
The Weather Company, whose parent company is IBM, also predicts an above-average hurricane season with 20 named storms, four of which are forecast to become major hurricanes.
La Niña conditions are currently forecast to continue through the start of the upcoming summer, with a trend towards neutral conditions as we approach the upcoming fall season. Should the current La Niña pattern hold on through the upcoming fall, it would be just the third time since 1950 that the pattern was present for three consecutive hurricane seasons.
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