DAVENPORT, Iowa — The Iowa caucuses are less than three weeks away, and the stakes couldn't be higher for the candidates looking to earn the Republican presidential nomination. News 8's Joe McCoy sat down with Dr. Paul Baumgardner, assistant professor of political science at Augustana College, about what could change in the presidential race after Iowa voters make their voices heard on Jan. 15.
Iowa only has 40 delegates up for grabs during the caucuses out of the more than 2,400 nationwide. However, because the Republican caucuses remain first in the nation, Baumgardner said Iowa's results will have a disproportionate impact on the future of the race.
"I think it's really important for Ron DeSantis, and also for Nikki Haley, either to win Iowa or to get second and make that second place finish look like it was more of a battle with the first place finisher than it was a battle for the silver medal," Baumgardner said.
Baumgardner feels Haley and DeSantis can't afford to lose Iowa by 20% or 30%. He said they both need a boost from the Hawkeye state to carry them through the rest of the primaries.
"It's going to be very, very, very difficult for any candidate to beat Trump if he absolutely shellacs the rest of the field in Iowa, in New Hampshire, in Nevada, in South Carolina," Baumgardner said. "If that happens in these early states, it looks like it's probably going to be a done deal."
For Trump, Baumgardner said losing Iowa would be a disaster, but even winning by a smaller margin than expected could spell trouble. Trump lost the 2016 Republican Iowa Caucus to Ted Cruz, but did very well in Iowa in both the 2016 and 2020 general election.
"I do feel as if many people have written off Iowa, Baumgardner said. "Trump has been in the lead for a long time and the question is not if he'll win, but by how much he will win."
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