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How is Donald Trump polling the day of the Iowa caucuses?

Poll data shows former President Donald Trump with a significant lead both statewide and nationally — leaving many wondering who will take home second place.

DES MOINES, Iowa — Today, Jan. 15, residents across the Hawkeye State are preparing for what is forecasted to be the coldest day in Iowa caucus history. 

Poll data from ABC News' FiveThirtyEight shows former President Donald Trump holding a significant lead over the other candidates nationally and in the state of Iowa. Due to this wide margin, many are focusing in on second place, which was recently taken over by former UN ambassador Nikki Haley. 

Just in the past week, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has dropped from 17.2% to 15.8% in the state of Iowa, with Haley going from 15.8% to 18.7%. Nationally, this gap between second and third is incredibly slim, with Haley at 11.9% and DeSantis at 11.8% at the time of publication.  

Here's a breakdown of the numbers:

Nationally

  • Donald Trump: 62.8%
  • Nikki Haley: 11.9%
  • Ron DeSantis: 11.8%
  • Vivek Ramaswamy: 4%
  • Asa Hutchinson: 0.9%

Iowa

  • Donald Trump: 52.7%
  • Nikki Haley: 18.7%
  • Ron DeSantis: 15.8%
  • Vivek Ramaswamy: 6.4%
  • Asa Hutchinson: 0.7%

Live data: How are the candidates faring in Iowa?


Live data: How are the candidates faring nationally?

Both Democrats and Republicans will host their caucus events tonight. Iowa Republicans are prepared to make a selection for their presidential candidate. However, due to changes to their caucus process, Democrats won't be casting their presidential ballots. Instead, they will only be meeting to conduct party business, such as electing unbound delegates and alternate delegates to county conventions, electing county central committee members and discussing platform resolutions. Voters will fill out presidential preference cards that will be submitted by mail, and participants can request a card through Monday, Feb. 19. The Democrats' results will be announced on March 5, also known as Super Tuesday. You can request one of those preference cards here.

For information on how to find your 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucus location, click here. For Democrats, that information can be found here. Voters must be registered party members to participate in the party's caucus, and you cannot participate in more than one caucus event.

News 8 will have live results on our Elections page, which can be found here

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