IOWA, USA — A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump in Iowa, 47% to 44%.
This is a change from a September poll, which saw Trump carrying Iowa by 4 points.
But how are these polls even taken? And how accurate are they?
Dr. Paul Baumgardner, political science professor at Augustana College, said polls are taken in the form of calls trying to reach certain demographics based on factors such as age, gender, or ethnicity.
"We want to kind of match the participants in the poll, their identities, their views, their behaviors to the broader demographic of the community whose views were actually trying to understand," Baumgardner said. "It's also important that you have enough people participating."
Baumgardner said if a small amount of people is involved in the poll, it can increase the margin of error within the result. This can lead to polls being inaccurate compared to others.
"Actually, as you see a lot of state level polls and national polls that show this presidential candidate up by one point or this senate candidate up by two points," Baumgardner said. "If that's within the margin of error, there's a good chance that actually those candidates are not winning, they're losing."
He also said voters can sometimes be directly affected by looking at these numbers.
"A few different things could happen," Baumgardner said. "One, you say 'I better get on the bandwagon, right? If everybody likes this person, what's wrong with me? I better like them too.' So, if you have a poll that inflates the support for a certain person that could actually lead more people to support that person."
Political Science Professor at the University of Iowa Tim Hagle says these polls do not guarantee how the election will pan out. He advises voters to take these numbers with a grain of salt.
"It's nice if it's aligns with what your desires are as a consumer. It's maybe disappointing if it's not," Hagle said. "But again, since we're talking an election and especially this close to it, you want to ignore a lot of that stuff and wait until you start to see some of the results."
There are many different polls taken around election season in each state, with varying results.
Hagle said with the margin of error taken into account, this recent poll showing Harris up by 3% over Donald Trump in Iowa may actually be closer moving into Election Day.
Polls close in Iowa on Election Day at 8 p.m. and in Illinois at 7 p.m.