DES MOINES, Iowa — Kamala Harris has taken the lead over Donald Trump in Iowa, according to a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll.
In what would be a shocking development days before Election Day, Harris leads 47% to 44% among "likely Iowa voters."
This is the first time Harris has led Trump in the poll. A previous September Iowa Poll showed Trump with a 4-point lead and in June Trump held a large 18-point lead over then-Democratic nominee Joe Biden.
"Of course, this poll isn't the election, but it does give us energy and enthusiasm and momentum going into Tuesday," House Minority Leader Jennifer Konfrst (D-Windsor Heights) said at an Iowa Democrats press conference Saturday. "We know that what this shows is that Iowa is a purple state that Democrats can win in Iowa, can win a statewide election, as Kamala Harris is proving tonight on this poll."
During a press conference, Iowa GOP Chairman Jeff Kaufman said the poll is "a clear outlier," pointing to a new Emerson College poll that showed Trump leading Harris by 10% as more reflective of the state.
Courtesy of Des Moines Register
Conducted by Selzer & Co. from Oct. 28-31, the poll consisted of 808 likely Iowa voters — including those who already voted and those who say they plan to vote. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, according to the latest poll.
Neither candidate has campaigned in Iowa since the presidential primaries ended, focusing their efforts on battleground states.
Harris winning Iowa would break a trend for what has been considered a "red state" — Trump won Iowa in 2016 and 2020.
According to the poll, Harris is highly favored by women in Iowa, particularly older women or those who are registered independents.
Meanwhile, Trump has maintained support from men (52% to 38%) and those in rural Iowa (55% to 35%).
Independent women support Harris by a 28-point margin while independent men back Trump by 10-points.
Similar to September, Harris has a 20 percentage point lead with women, 56% to 36%, the poll shows. Trump holds a 14-point lead with men, 52%-38%, but that number has decreased 13-points since September's Poll, 59% to 32%.
Although senior voters who are 65 and older lean towards Harris, the gender gap is significant. Senior women support her by 63% compared to the 28% who support Trump. Senior men only favor her by a 2-point margin, 47% to 45%.
Courtesy of Des Moines Register
Harris holds a narrow lead among voters under 35 (46% to 44%,) but sees a large amount of support from 55 and older (51% to 39%. With 65 and older she holds an even larger lead at 55% to 36%.
Trump carries likely voters between 35-54 (50% to 42%).
Very few likely Iowa voters remain undecided ahead of Nov. 5, with 91% saying they have their minds made up.
The poll also showed different issues move Democrats and Republicans to the ballot box.
Almost half of the voters who preferred Donald Trump cited inflation and the economy as their most important issues.
For Harris supporters, "the future of democracy" was the top issue cited by 51%.
What is the Iowa Poll?
The Iowa Poll was conducted from Oct. 28-31, 2024 for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines. The poll is based on telephone interviews with 808 Iowans 18 years and older who say they will "definitely vote or have already voted in the 2024 general election for president and other offices," according to the Des Moines Register. The Des Moines Register has ben conducting the Iowa Poll since 1943. Since 1987, J. Ann Selzer has led the Iowa Poll.