ST PAUL, Minn. — A ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militant group, came to fruition in a matter of hours, but no one is sure how long it will last.
“Well, that’s another question altogether 60 days, 90 days, 120 days, in perpetuity, but for now it’s in the rational self-interests of both Israelis, Hezbollah, and even Iran to stop shooting each other,” said Macalester College International Relations Professor Andrew Latham.
Hezbollah is based out of Lebanon and has aligned itself with Hamas. In the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, more than 3,760 people have been killed in Lebanon and more than 70 people have been killed in Israel. Many of the victims on both sides have been civilians, according to the Associated Press.
“I think the decision on the part of the Israeli government is we need to seize the moment to take a break so we could rebuild, but there’s no way Benjamin Netanyahu would have signed onto this if he wasn’t certain Hezbollah had been displaced, not destroyed but displaced,” he said. “[Israel] had to recall all these reservists and what not and it’s really affecting the economy right now and the morale in the Israeli military is getting lower and lower.”
Latham said Israel has done a lot of damage to Hezbollah’s infrastructure. He said this could open the window for the Lebanese Army and United Nations Interim Force Lebanon to get Hezbollah out of the country so Israel can feel secure.
“It might be 60 days, but it also might lay the foundation for something longer,” he said.
He said a ceasefire doesn’t address the deep structural conflict between Israel and Iran, Hezbollah and Israel and Palestinians and certain Israeli groups. He also doesn’t think it will have a huge impact on a possible ceasefire in Gaza.
The war in Gaza began after Hamas militants killed about 1,200 people and took about 250 people hostage in Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.
In the war between Israel and Hamas, more than 44,000 Palestinian people have been killed, according to the Associated Press. The Gaza Health Ministry said than more than half of the victims were women and children.
“The problem is that on both the Palestinian side and the Israeli side there are really powerful political factions that have no interest in a deep and enduring peace,” he said.
“Ceasefires are not peace, right. It’s ‘we’re going to stop shooting for X amount of time.’ And the Israeli’s are specific about this, they reserve the right to go back into Southern Lebanon if things don’t go well,” Latham said.
Latham first visited Southern Lebanon in the late 90s.
“I got to visit with Palestinian Authority, PLO, Egyptian government, Israeli government, Canadian peacekeepers in the Sinai, Canadian peacekeepers in south of Lebanon,” Latham said.
He said people were hopeful they would reach a peace agreement 20 years ago, but it didn’t pan out that way.
“I’m a hopeful guy, so maybe the ceasefire is a jumping off point for negotiations that will lead to something more durable, but I can’t imagine what that would look like,” he said.
He said the United States presidential election might have also played a role in the ceasefire deal. He said all sides are focused on the prospect of president-elect Donald Trump’s taking office in January.
“I do think that Benjamin Netanyahu is embolden by the fact that Donald Trump has been elected and I think Iran is terrified by the fact that Donald Trump has been elected,” he said.
Latham said Hezbollah is just caught in the middle. He said he hopes the region will have peace one day.
