MOLINE, Ill. — Back in 2018, storm chaser and Northern Illinois University professor Dr. Victor Gensini published a groundbreaking study on tornado patterns.
He looked at tornado data from 1979 to 2017, examining trends on where tornadoes touched down and the location of certain ingredients that promote their development. Gensini found a marked eastward migration of the typical "tornado alley" many of us think of.
A traditional tornado alley covers parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska.
But Gensini found that more and more, tornadic activity is occuring further east, in states such as Iowa, Illinois, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee and a good chunk of the southeast and northeast.
News 8 interviewed Gensini about all of this in 2019.
Today, six years after that study was initially published, Gensini says the data from 2018 not only holds up, it actually might have been too conservative in its predictions.
Tornado alley, Gensini says, is expanding. Meaning storms are still found in all of the "traditional" places, while also popping up more frequently in this new, expanded alley.
"We've redone the analysis and not only are storms still increasing, but they're actually increasing at a little faster rate," Gensini said.
Much of that increase, he noted, is happening directly in and around the QCA.
"If you take a look at the Quad City viewing area, for example, this year in 2024 some of your counties have already had seven tornado watches and upwards of 11 tornado warnings, depending on where you were living."
At the time of this article, Iowa has had 126 tornado reports in 2024. That's up from just 72 in 2023. In Illinois, there's been 122 tornadoes already this year, compared to 118 in all of last year.
"Some of it is detection, but a lot of it is just changing weather patterns," Gensini said.
Not only are tornadoes happening more frequently, but they're also happening at more unusual times of year.
"Think January and February, usually cooler months. This year, we had a record number of tornadoes in portions of the Midwest early in the season, in January and February. So it is kind of this lengthening of the season," Gensini said.
Now, experiencing a tornado is still extremely rare. However, Gensini notes the risk is notable and important.
"When it comes to preparing, we all need to be mindful that one tornado could ruin everything. We should always be prepared for that. Tornadoes can happen any time of the year," he said. "That's why we talk about contingency plans and making sure you have action plans in the case that you're under one these severe weather warnings."
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