Tracking an active, but warm pattern this week

Ready for a break from our early flirt with winter? I know I am! I've got some good news this week as some warmth is finally returning to the forecast. It will come with a cost though, that being a more active pattern with a few chances for both rain and snow.

Monday will feature dry conditions as we will be between storm systems. With plenty of cloud cover left, temperatures won't rise much compared to this weekend as we stay close to the low 40s.

A weak system moves in by Monday evening and especially Tuesday morning bringing a brief rain/snow mix to the region. Most of this activity will only impact areas north of the Quad Cities between midnight and 6am on Tuesday morning. I wouldn't expect much of an impact in terms of road conditions with this system since there isn't a whole lot of moisture to work with.

The strongest system this week will develop by Wednesday as an area of low-pressure forms in the plains. In response to this strengthening storm system, a strong southerly flow will take over the region boosting our high temperatures well into the 50s for Wednesday afternoon. If we can manage to sneak in a few periods of sunshine, a stray 60° reading or two will be likely in some of our hometowns. The day will remain dry with rain chances increasing once we get into the evening hours.

This particular system will have a bit more moisture to work with and will lead to a widespread rain that will likely approach one inch in some areas. While we've been fairly dry lately, minus the snow, there will still be a little runoff from this rainfall that may lead to a brief, minor, rise on area creeks and streams. Any cold air that this system will try and work with to produce snow will remain locked up well to our north as the track takes this system to our northwest. Since we will also be on the warm side of this system, a rumble or two of thunder will also be possible, especially late Wednesday night as the rain begins.

The colder air will eventually catch up to us by Friday as temperatures fall into the 30s for daytime highs. This cooler air mass will remain with us through next weekend before another warming trend arrives for Thanksgiving Week.

Meteorologist Andrew Stutzke

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