A Flash Flood Watch continues for the entire Quad Cities until 10am Sunday morning.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue to lift northward this evening bringing with them gusty winds and heavy rainfall. The severe threat will remain isolated due to the lack of instability. Clouds and widespread showers have limited the amount of storm energy. Any strong storm that can manage to sneak into the region will bring with it small hail and gusty winds. Frequent lightning is also likely as these storms push through.
The greatest concentration of storms will initially be west of the Mississippi River before spreading east overnight.
It has been an extremely wet month so far as we've already surpassed the average amount of precipitation for this time in May. In fact, if you look back at the individual days so far, we've spent nearly three-quarters of those days under the raindrops. That's 13 out of 18 days. Remarkable!
While Sunday will initially start off soggy, some improvement is expected by the late morning and afternoon. The heaviest rains are expected to fall just before 9am followed by more scattered to isolated activity through the afternoon. The best chance for any additional heavy rainfall beyond Sunday morning will lie east of the Mississippi River. A cold front working in through that region will touch off widely scattered showers and storms Sunday afternoon. At this time, no severe weather is expected. Quiet conditions return for Sunday night with cooler temperatures, too! Lows will drop into the 40s by Monday morning.
All area rivers, creeks, and streams continue to be the main focus for next week. This active pattern is only going to take a temporary break before restarting again. Multiple rounds of showers and storms, including heavy rainfall and severe weather, certainly look to repeat again as we get into the second half of the week. Most model guidance gives the Quad Cities an additional one to three inches of rainfall through Friday.
Taking into account that possibility, the folks at the National Weather Service are already predicting another crest on the Mississippi River here in the Quad Cities. The current range calls for a rise next weekend to between 18.5 and 21.0 feet. The previous crest, which set an all-time record, was 22.7 feet. In order for a crest of 21 feet to occur, we would need to be on the high-end of the probability for heavy rainfall into next week. While not yet set in stone, it is certainly something worth watching in the days ahead.
Meteorologist Andrew Stutzke