Tracking another round of heavy rain Thursday

Our quiet skies will quickly come to an end by Thursday morning as a new storm system brings another round of showers and thunderstorms, some that will produce locally heavy rainfall.

In advance of this next system, a new Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the Quad Cities and points east. This new watch will be in effect until 1pm Thursday afternoon.

The latest model data agree that the bulk of the activity will be arriving during the predawn hours of Thursday morning, giving us another messy and wet morning commute. While widespread heavy rain isn't expected with this batch, localized higher amounts of an inch appear likely in any areas that see the thunderstorm activity.

Unlike the last two previous rainfall events which have brought widespread 1 to 3-inch rain amounts over large chunks of real estate, this heavy rain batch will bring more localized heavy downpours. These localized one inch or more amounts will likely cause some standing water and even a few road closures as the ground remains fully saturated with water. The threat of heavy rain will come to an end by Thursday afternoon.

We are carefully tracking the weather pattern into next week as signs are pointing to a return of near-daily chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning Sunday night. A cold front will hang up just south of the Quad Cities by Monday and as energy moves across it, several clusters of showers and storms will impact the area through at least Thursday.

What is frightening to see is the amount of rainfall that this newly energized pattern could bring if it unfolds the way things stand right now. Several models bring in rainfall in excess of two inches by at least Tuesday, and more chances for showers and storms follow for the remainder of the week. While the Mississippi River is expected to slowly fall by this weekend, if we see additional heavy rains either over the Quad Cities or just to the north, another crest would likely become reality heading into next week.

Meteorologist Andrew Stutzke

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