The Eric Factor: Even with a warming trend, a White Christmas is still likely

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A White Christmas in the Quad Cities is still likely...but barely. Right now, I'd place the chance at about 55%. Historically, we get a White Christmas in the Quad Cities about 40-45% of the time.

Here's my thinking with 13 days left until Christmas:

The cold pattern we've been in for a week will ease up on us over the next 5-8 days...possibly setting up a few back-to-back 40 degree temperatures early next week. That would likely melt off any snow (should we receive any with clipper systems Wednesday and Friday).

It's after the December 21-24 time frame that is more interesting (and my reasoning for keeping the chance above 50%).

Models are showing another cold surge of air, lasting right into the holiday itself. Models are also indicating a wetter pattern. And while Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan have seen decent snows in the past few days, I believe the more active pattern will shift south into Iowa and Illinois by that time.

The National Weather Service's GFS computer model is in line with that thinking:

Much like my beloved Green Bay Packers, it looks like we'll wait until the 4th Quarter for a rally. It's likely the days leading up to Christmas will give us the only real potential for advisory or storm-level snows in the Quad Cities.

-Meteorologist Eric Sorensen

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