A White Christmas in the Quad Cities is still likely...but barely. Right now, I'd place the chance at about 55%. Historically, we get a White Christmas in the Quad Cities about 40-45% of the time.
Here's my thinking with 13 days left until Christmas:
The cold pattern we've been in for a week will ease up on us over the next 5-8 days...possibly setting up a few back-to-back 40 degree temperatures early next week. That would likely melt off any snow (should we receive any with clipper systems Wednesday and Friday).
It's after that...in the December 21-24 time frame that is more interesting (and my reasoning for keeping the chance above 50%).
Models are showing another cold surge of air, lasting right into the holiday itself. Models are also indicating a wetter pattern. And while Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan have seen decent snows in the past few days, I believe the more active pattern will shift south into Iowa and Illinois by that time.
Much like my beloved Green Bay Packers, it looks like we'll wait until the 4th Quarter for a rally. It's likely the days leading up to Christmas will give us the only real potential for advisory or storm-level snows in the Quad Cities.
-Meteorologist Eric Sorensen
