First look at the 4th of July forecast

Good morning everyone! The 4th of July forecast is now within our eight-day range and it doesn't look perfect.

While the timing may change, there is a good chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly Monday afternoon and evening. While that is good news for 4th of July festivities, "Red, White, and Boom" in the Quad Cities is Monday night. That's when we'll have a chance of thunderstorms. The system that is slated to arrive next week is out over the western Pacific Ocean which means timing and intensity is subject to change.

Below is the National Weather Service's GFS computer model's solution for Monday evening. It shows an area of low pressure centered in Central Illinois with heavy thunderstorms in Eastern Iowa.

If this model is accurate, there will be a potential to receive several inches of rainfall. Below is a graph which shows a 1-2 inch potential Monday into early Tuesday.

If we don't get rain on the 4th of July, we'll be lucky. It hasn't rained in the Quad Cities on the 4th since 2009. And back in 2007 we had more than three inches of rainfall!

And forecasts in the day 7-8 range have to be taken with a grain of salt. Yes, we are confident enough as forecasters to put forth an 8 Day Outlook, however it is just that: it's an outlook. Before dogging any Meteorologist for putting out a long-range forecast, consider this first:

Have a great day!

-Meteorologist Eric Sorensen