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The first round of rain and potential thunder will develop this morning with a few showers. Some thunderstorms are possible as we go into the early afternoon, but these should stay below severe limits. More potent and potentially dangerous thunderstorms are possible after that…mainly after dinner and before midnight.
Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the two, primary threats with these. However, a brief tornado can not be ruled out this evening. The higher risk areas for severe storms are between Iowa City, Kirksville, Missouri, and over to Kansas City, and up to Lamoni, Iowa.
The storms will be quick-movers, possibly on the order of 40-50 mph. This is an important factor because storms won’t give you much advanced warning if you’re just watching the western and southwestern horizons. Or if you're waiting to hear thunder, the storms may produce strong wind before you really hear the thunder. On top of that, fast-moving thunderstorms are able to produce damaging wind gusts more easily. Some gusts in storms could exceed 70mph, which is stronger than many weak tornadoes. Speaking of tornadoes, there doesn’t appear to be enough instability and vorticity (the amount of energy needed to spin a storm), however we will watch things closely as some robust updrafts could cause some brief rotation on some of these storms.
After midnight, temperatures will drop quickly…all the way down to 40 degrees which will bring a quick end to our storm threat.
-Meteorologist Eric Sorensen