Terry’s Take: Winter is alive and well!

Posted on: 10:45 pm, January 16, 2014, by

Terry Swails Weather Blog

Talk about a smoking gun! The weather the next 2-3 weeks looks fully loaded. There is lots of winter on the table. Lately, the general pattern has been dominated by fast moving clippers. These don’t have much moisture and move quickly. However, they can have pretty good dynamics and are capable of producing narrow bands of significant snow. One of these is headed for the area Saturday. Here are the snowfall forecasts off the two US models as of Thursday evening.

WRF SNOWFALL FORECAST
WRF SNOWFALL FORECAST
GFS SNOWFALL FORECAST
GFS SNOWFALL FORECAST

The next 24 hours will be critical in determining the axis of heaviest snow. I’ll be surprised if we don’t see at least an inch or two.

As I’ve been touting for a week, the cold is coming back in full force the last week of January. There are plenty of questions as to the intensity, placement, and timing but there is no doubt in my mind the Midwest is in for a cold 2-3 week period beginning early next week. The real ugly stuff comes later around Jan 26-27th.

Here is the EURO 5 day mean 500mb flow. Look at that big old ridge into Alaska. That is a bitter flow from the Rockies eastward.

1 euro means

Below you can see a 1054 surface high shown by the EURO Jan 28th. That is a beast. Extremely cold dense air!

1 euro 1054 high

Below, the EURO 850 temperature anomaly Jan. 27th. 25 to 35 below normal centered on the Midwest. Throw in a little wind and that’s a real polar party! No thanks…

1 eur0 anomaly jan 27

The pattern coming up is really locked and loaded with winter. The GFS week 2 forecast even shows a snowier regime developing. I could go on and on but wanted to highlight the clipper Saturday and hit the cold hard next week and beyond. I guess I did that! Roll weather….TS