Terry’s Takes: As the world turns, so does the weather!

Posted on: 10:37 pm, January 7, 2014, by

Terry Swails Weather Blog

Early Tuesday morning, temperatures over most of the Midwest were residing in sub-zero territory of -5 to -15. This of course following one of the worst Arctic outbreaks in nearly 20 years. In an unlikely twist of fate, the air mass over the Midwest will warm so fast the next 72 hours (nearly 40 degrees) that the next weather maker on the table will produce mixed precipitation that turns to rain on Friday.

There is still concern for a period of significant freezing rain (perhaps sleet), especially along and north of I-80. But even here, a transition to rain is expected with temperatures climbing into the low to mid 30s Friday afternoon. Along with the warm air advection will be high dewpoints that may produce areas of dense fog over the extensive snow pack.

One thing that’s obvious is the fact the central Midwest and the Quad Cities will miss out on what could have been a big snow producer. That is painful for a snow lover like me. Look at the total precip. shown by the GFS.

GFS TOTAL PRECIP FORECAST
GFS TOTAL PRECIP FORECAST

From about Rockford to the Quad Cites, Kansas City on to Wichita, 1 to 1.7″ of liquid precipitation is shown. If that falls as snow 10-18″ would be the end result! But, as you can see below, the GFS keeps any meaningful snow off to the northwest!

GFS SNOWFALL FORECAST

GFS SNOWFALL FORECAST

GFS SNOWFALL FORECAST

Here is the GFS depiction of surface features Friday evening. Note the large area of rain and the 35 degree isotherm to the Quad Cities. 32 degrees from NW Iowa to central Wisconsin.

GFS SURFACE AND PRECIP. TYPE FRIDAY 6PM
GFS SURFACE AND PRECIP. TYPE FRIDAY 6PM

Suffice it to say, some freezing precipitation issues are still a threat Friday but it will take more time to pin point the location and potential duration. What a start to winter so far!