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Terry’s Take: White Christmas, I’m already dreaming!

Posted on: 10:25 pm, November 21, 2013, by

Terry Swails Weather Blog

Is it too early to dream of a white Christmas?

I’m sitting in the chair today and it hits me, Christmas is just over a month away and coming on fast.  It may not be Thanksgiving but the radio station has been playing carols for at least two weeks!  The gifts to buy, the decisions to make, the money to spend. The thought of it all just gave me a little stress bump. OK, I’m back!

WHITE CHRISTMAS

WHITE CHRISTMAS

Personally, I’m one of those romantics who demands a White Christmas. I actually obsess over it once December arrives. I know full well I shouldn’t since the odds of it happening in the Quad Cities are about 40% in any given year. (You can see the national break down below)…No matter what the odds, I can’t help myself and I’m already scanning the charts for the elusive Christmas snow.

WHITE CHRISTMAS ODDS, 1" OR MORE

WHITE CHRISTMAS ODDS, 1″ OR MORE

With that in mind, I’m posting the ensemble snow depth forecast leading up to Christmas from the CFSv2 climate model. There are a number of control runs that are averaged out to produce the 4 solutions shown. Each depicts the max 10 day snow depth for the period December 16-26th.

CFSv2 4 PANEL ENSEMBLE SNOW DEPTH FORECAST DEC 16-26TH

CFSv2 4 PANEL ENSEMBLE SNOW DEPTH FORECAST DEC 16-26TH

Now I know this is forecast fantasy land but I can’t help but look at the latest trends. In this case, you can see that all 4 solutions show at least the northern 1/3 of the nation white. 2 of the ensembles show it more like 50%. Either outcome would be good for me!
One thing is for sure, we have a ways to go for these forecasts to be accurate. As of today, only 14.9% of the country has snow cover, that’s only 10% more than October. For a White Christmas to be more than just a dream, we need to get some snow down up north asap and then build on it.

SNOW DEPTH NOVEMBER 21ST

SNOW DEPTH NOVEMBER 21ST

At any rate, if Bing Crosby can sing about it, there’s no reason I can’t dream about it. Ho Ho Ho everybody!

THE CLASSIC CHRISTMAS MOVIE, WHITE CHRISTMAS!

THE CLASSIC CHRISTMAS MOVIE, WHITE CHRISTMAS!