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Terry’s Take: A fast start to winter…

Posted on: 10:37 pm, October 22, 2013, by

Terry Swails Weather Blog

Back at the end of September I was blowing the horn that big weather changes were coming in 2-3 weeks. Lo and behold, look where we are today. The first snow of the season is behind us and temperatures didn’t even get out of the 30s for highs Tuesday afternoon. The wet fall snow was the 3rd earliest ever measured and it came a full month ahead of schedule, so early that most of the trees haven’t even changed colors let alone lost their leaves!

WELCOME TO MOLINE, I THINK!

WELCOME TO MOLINE, I THINK!

The cold will be with us the rest of this week but a pattern change is in the offering this weekend. The jet will relax and retreat to the north as a trough forms out west. (see 500mb chart) I expect highs to reach the 50s this weekend and a couple days near 60 will be possible early next week. A storm system may also bring some beneficial rains Monday night/Tuesday which is something we could really use.

500MB JET STREAM NEXT MONDAY

500MB JET STREAM NEXT MONDAY

Beyond that, the PNA (Pacific North America) is shown staying positive but trending towards neutral by Nov 1st. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is projected to go positive about that time indicating less blocking. In essence, that should promote a warmer period the first 5-10 days of November. The CFSv2 agrees with its above normal temp. anomaly shown for Nov 5th-9th.

PNA FORECAST

PNA FORECAST

NAO FORECAST

NAO FORECAST

This pattern also has more potential to generate moisture so that wetter weather is a distinct possibility. I did show the 16 day GFS precip output and it is wet for much of the central and EC US. I hope that pans out!

TEMPERATURE ANOMALY NOV 5-9TH

TEMPERATURE ANOMALY NOV 5-9TH

16 DAY PRECIPITATION FORECAST

16 DAY PRECIPITATION FORECAST

In a nutshell, the cold will relax its grip the next couple of weeks and at least for now, there’s no more snow in our future.